****  STATISTICAL ANALYSIS FOR "INTERTEMPORAL RETROSPECTIVE ECONOMIC VOTING BEHAVIOR" MANUSCRIPT WITH BEN MELUSKY  BASED ON JOP REFEREE COMMENTS/SUGGESTIONS *****

 * OPEN STATA OUTPUT FILE LOG

   log using "D:\Melusky\Intertemporal Electoral Choice Project\Data\Supplementary Statistical Analysis.JOP Referees Suggestions.01-09-2014.FINAL.smcl" 




 * OPEN "COLLECTIVE WISDOM" DATA SET
  
    use "D:\Melusky\Intertemporal Electoral Choice Project\Data\intertemporal retrospective economic voting.11-07-2013.postestimation.dta", clear
  





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**** ROBUSTNESS CHECK # 1 *****






*** TABLE SI-10:    ESTIMATE STATISTICAL MODELS THAT ACCOUNT FOR CONDITIONAL ELECTORAL ACCOUNTABILITY & REPUTATION DEPRECIATION BASED ON THE EXTENT TO WHICH EX-GOVERNORS' GOVERNED UNDER UNIFIED PARTY GOVERNMENT [GOVERNOR & LEGISLATIVE INSTITUTIONS]  ******* 








**** CREATE RELEVANT VARIABLES TO ASSESS CONDITIONAL REPUTATION DEPRECIATON BASED ON THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE EX-GOVERNOR 'GOVERNED' UNDER UNIFIED PARTY GOVERNMENT IN OFFICE DURING THEIR TENURE AS GOVERNOR *****


** Two-Way Interaction Between Average Income Growth (Tenure) * % Unified Party Government ****
generate aigtenurepctunifiedtenure = personalincometenureann*pctunifiedtenure
*
** Two-Way Interaction Between Election Delay * % Unified Party Government ****
generate eddurmonths2pctunifiedtenure = eddurmonths2*pctunifiedtenure
*
** Three-Way Interaction Between Average Income Growth (Tenure) * Election Delay * % Unified Party Government ****
generate pictenureannpctunifiedtenure = pictenureann*pctunifiedtenure
*





*** ESTIMATE OVERALL TENURE ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] **** 





******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-10A: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pctunifiedtenure pictenureann aigtenurepctunifiedtenure eddurmonths2pctunifiedtenure pictenureannpctunifiedtenure lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1

predict tenurefullresidsimrcook10a, cooksd
*
*
list electionresults eddurmonths2 general tenurefullresidsimrcook10a if tenurefullresidsimrcook10a >= 1  & eddur2binary==1



*** MODEL SI-10B: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2  pctunifiedtenure  pictenureann aigtenurepctunifiedtenure eddurmonths2pctunifiedtenure pictenureannpctunifiedtenure  lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj if eddur2binary==1 & tenurefullresidsimrcook10a < 1








******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-10C: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pctunifiedtenure  pictenureann aigtenurepctunifiedtenure eddurmonths2pctunifiedtenure pictenureannpctunifiedtenure  lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1



** POST-ESTIMATION DIAGNOSTICS OF THE RESIDUALS FOR SKEWNESS, KURTOSIS, AND INFLUENTIAL-LEVERAGE OBSERVATIONS *** 

predict tenurefullresidsimrcook10c, cooksd

*
*
*
*

list electionresults eddurmonths2 general tenurefullresidsimrcook10c if tenurefullresidsimrcook10c >= 1  & eddur2binary==1







*** MODEL SI-10D: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pctunifiedtenure  pictenureann aigtenurepctunifiedtenure eddurmonths2pctunifiedtenure pictenureannpctunifiedtenure lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1 & tenurefullresidsimrcook10c < 1



*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [SETTING PCTUNIFIEDTENURE = 0: NONE OF EX-GOVERNOR'S TENURE REFLECTED UNIFIED PARTY GOVERNMENT] *****

lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*1 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*1*0
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*12 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*12*0
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*24 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*24*0
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*36 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*36*0
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*48 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*48*0
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*60 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*60*0
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*72 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*72*0
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*84 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*84*0
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*96 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*96*0
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*108 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*108*0
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*120 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*120*0
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*132 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*132*0
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*144 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*144*0





*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [SETTING PCTUNIFIEDTENURE = 0.5: HALF OF EX-GOVERNOR'S TENURE REFLECTED UNIFIED PARTY GOVERNMENT] *****

lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*1 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0.5 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*1*0.5
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*12 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0.5 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*12*0.5
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*24 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0.5 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*24*0.5
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*36 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0.5 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*36*0.5
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*48 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0.5 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*48*0.5
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*60 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0.5 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*60*0.5
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*72 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0.5 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*72*0.5
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*84 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0.5 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*84*0.5
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*96 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0.5 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*96*0.5
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*108 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0.5 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*108*0.5
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*120 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0.5 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*120*0.5
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*132 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0.5 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*132*0.5
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*144 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*0.5 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*144*0.5






*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [SETTING PCTUNIFIEDTENURE = 1: ALL OF EX-GOVERNOR'S TENURE REFLECTED UNIFIED PARTY GOVERNMENT] *****

lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*1 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*1 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*1*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*12 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*1 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*12*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*24 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*1 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*24*1
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*36 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*1 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*36*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*48 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*1 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*48*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*60 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*1 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*60*1
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*72 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*1 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*72*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*84 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*1 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*84*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*96 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*1 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*96*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*108 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*1 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*108*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*120 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*1 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*120*1
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*132 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*1 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*132*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*144 + aigtenurepctunifiedtenure*1 + pictenureannpctunifiedtenure*144*1







*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
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*** ESTIMATE MOST RECENT/LAST TERM ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] **** 




**** CREATE RELEVANT VARIABLES TO ASSESS CONDITIONAL REPUTATION DEPRECIATON BASED ON THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE EX-GOVERNOR 'GOVERNED' UNDER UNIFIED PARTY GOVERNMENT IN OFFICE DURING THEIR LAST/RECENT TERM AS GOVERNOR *****



** Two-Way Interaction Between Average Income Growth (Last/Recent Term) * % Unified Party Government (Last/Recent Term)****
generate aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm = personalincomerecenttermann*pctunifiedlastterm
*
** Two-Way Interaction Between Election Delay * % Unified Party Government (Last/Recent Term) ****
generate eddurmonths2pctunifiedlastterm = eddurmonths2*pctunifiedlastterm
*
** Three-Way Interaction Between Average Income Growth (Last/Recent Term) * Election Delay * % Unified Party Government (Last/Recent Term) ****
generate picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm = picrtermann*pctunifiedlastterm
*





******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********





*** MODEL SI-10E: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 pctunifiedlastterm  picrtermann aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm eddurmonths2pctunifiedlastterm picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm  lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1


predict rtermfullresidsimrcook10e, cooksd
*
*
list electionresults eddurmonths2 general rtermfullresidsimrcook10e if rtermfullresidsimrcook10e >= 1 & eddur2binary==1




*** MODEL SI-10F: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 pctunifiedlastterm picrtermann aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm eddurmonths2pctunifiedlastterm picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm  lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & rtermfullresidsimrcook10e < 1 







******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********




*** MODEL SI-10G: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 pctunifiedlastterm picrtermann aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm eddurmonths2pctunifiedlastterm picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm  lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1



** POST-ESTIMATION DIAGNOSTICS OF THE RESIDUALS FOR SKEWNESS, KURTOSIS, AND INFLUENTIAL-LEVERAGE OBSERVATIONS *** 

predict rtermfullresidsimrcook10g, cooksd

*
*
*

list electionresults eddurmonths2 general rtermfullresidsimrcook10g if rtermfullresidsimrcook10g >= 1 & eddur2binary==1






*** MODEL SI-10H: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 pctunifiedlastterm  picrtermann aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm eddurmonths2pctunifiedlastterm picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm  lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & rtermfullresidsimrcook10g < 1 



*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [SETTING PCTUNIFIEDLASTTERM = 0: NONE OF EX-GOVERNOR'S LAST/RECENT TERM IN OFFICE REFLECTED UNIFIED PARTY GOVERNMENT] *******
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*1 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*1*0
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann  + picrtermann*12 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*12*0
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann  + picrtermann*24 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*24*0
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann  + picrtermann*36 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*36*0
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann  + picrtermann*48 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*48*0
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann  + picrtermann*60 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*60*0
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann  + picrtermann*72 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*72*0
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann  + picrtermann*84 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*84*0
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann  + picrtermann*96 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*96*0
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann  + picrtermann*108 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*108*0
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann  + picrtermann*120 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*120*0
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann  + picrtermann*132 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*132*0
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann  + picrtermann*144 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*144*0





*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [SETTING PCTUNIFIEDLASTTERM = 0.5: HALF OF EX-GOVERNOR'S LAST/RECENT TERM IN OFFICE REFLECTED UNIFIED PARTY GOVERNMENT] *******
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*1 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0.5 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*1*0.5
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*12 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0.5 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*12*0.5
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*24 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0.5 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*24*0.5
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*36 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0.5 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*36*0.5
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*48 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0.5 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*48*0.5
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*60 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0.5 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*60*0.5
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*72 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0.5 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*72*0.5
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*84 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0.5 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*84*0.5
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*96 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0.5 +  picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*96*0.5
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*108 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0.5 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*108*0.5
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*120 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0.5 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*120*0.5
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*132 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0.5 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*132*0.5
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*144 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*0.5 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*144*0.5




*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [SETTING PCTUNIFIEDLASTTERM = 1: ALL OF EX-GOVERNOR'S LAST/RECENT TERM IN OFFICE REFLECTED UNIFIED PARTY GOVERNMENT] *******
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*1 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*1 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*1*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*12 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*1 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*12*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*24 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*1 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*24*1
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*36 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*1 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*36*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann  + picrtermann*48 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*1 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*48*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann  + picrtermann*60 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*1 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*60*1
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann  + picrtermann*72 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*1 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*72*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann  + picrtermann*84 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*1 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*84*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann  + picrtermann*96 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*1 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*96*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann  + picrtermann*108 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*1 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*108*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann  + picrtermann*120 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*1 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*120*1
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann  + picrtermann*132 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*1 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*132*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann  + picrtermann*144 + aigrtermpctunifiedlastterm*1 + picrtermannpctunifiedlastterm*144*1





*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************



*** ESTIMATE MOST RECENT YEAR ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] **** 






**** CREATE RELEVANT VARIABLES TO ASSESS CONDITIONAL REPUTATION DEPRECIATON BASED ON THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE EX-GOVERNOR 'GOVERNED' UNDER UNIFIED PARTY GOVERNMENT IN OFFICE DURING THEIR LAST/FINAL YEAR AS GOVERNOR *****

*

generate unifiedlastyear=0 if pctunifiedlastterm==0
replace unifiedlastyear=1 if pctunifiedlastterm!=0

*

** Two-Way Interaction Between Average Income Growth (Last/Final Year) * % Unified Party Government (Last/Final Year)****
generate aigryearunifiedlastyear = personalincomerecentyearann*unifiedlastyear
*
** Two-Way Interaction Between Election Delay * % Unified Party Government (Last/Final Year) ****
generate eddurmonths2unifiedlastyear = eddurmonths2*unifiedlastyear
*
** Three-Way Interaction Between Average Income Growth (Last/Final Year) * Election Delay * % Unified Party Government (Last/Final Year) ****
generate picryearannunifiedlastyear = picryearann*unifiedlastyear
*





******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-10I: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 unifiedlastyear  picryearann  aigryearunifiedlastyear eddurmonths2unifiedlastyear  picryearannunifiedlastyear lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1


predict ryearfullresidsimrcook10i, cooksd
*
*
list electionresults eddurmonths2 general ryearfullresidsimrcook10i if ryearfullresidsimrcook10i >= 1 & eddur2binary==1




*** MODEL SI-10J: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 unifiedlastyear  picryearann  aigryearunifiedlastyear eddurmonths2unifiedlastyear  picryearannunifiedlastyear  lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & ryearfullresidsimrcook10i < 1, norobust







******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********




*** MODEL SI-10K: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 unifiedlastyear  picryearann  aigryearunifiedlastyear eddurmonths2unifiedlastyear  picryearannunifiedlastyear   lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1



** POST-ESTIMATION DIAGNOSTICS OF THE RESIDUALS FOR SKEWNESS, KURTOSIS, AND INFLUENTIAL-LEVERAGE OBSERVATIONS *** 

predict ryearfullresidsimrcook10k, cooksd

*
*
*
*

list electionresults eddurmonths2 general ryearfullresidsimrcook10k if ryearfullresidsimrcook10k >= 1 & eddur2binary==1






*** MODEL SI-10L: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2  unifiedlastyear  picryearann  aigryearunifiedlastyear eddurmonths2unifiedlastyear  picryearannunifiedlastyear   lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & ryearfullresidsimrcook10k < 1



*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST  [SETTING UNIFIEDLASTYEAR = 0: EX-GOVERNOR'S LAST/FINAL YEAR IN OFFICE WAS UDNER UNIFIED PARTY GOVERNMENT] ***
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*1 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*1*0
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*12 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*12*0
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*24 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*24*0
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*36 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*36*0
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*48 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*48*0
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*60 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*60*0
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*72 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*72*0
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*84 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*84*0
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*96 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*96*0
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*108 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*108*0
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*120 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*120*0
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*132 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*132*0
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*144 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*144*0





*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST  [SETTING UNIFIEDLASTYEAR = 0.5: HALF OF EX-GOVERNOR'S LAST/FINAL YEAR IN OFFICE WAS UDNER UNIFIED PARTY GOVERNMENT] ***
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*1 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0.5 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*1*0.5
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*12 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0.5 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*12*0.5
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*24 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0.5 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*24*0.5
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*36 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0.5 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*36*0.5
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*48 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0.5 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*48*0.5
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*60 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0.5 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*60*0.5
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*72 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0.5 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*72*0.5
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*84 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0.5 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*84*0.5
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*96 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0.5 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*96*0.5
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*108 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0.5 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*108*0.5
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*120 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0.5 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*120*0.5
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*132 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0.5 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*132*0.5
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*144 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*0.5 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*144*0.5





*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST  [SETTING UNIFIEDLASTYEAR = 1: ALL OF EX-GOVERNOR'S LAST/FINAL YEAR IN OFFICE WAS UDNER UNIFIED PARTY GOVERNMENT] ***
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*1 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*1 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*1*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*12 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*1 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*12*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*24 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*1 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*24*1
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*36 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*1 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*36*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*48 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*1 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*48*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*60 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*1 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*60*1
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*72 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*1 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*72*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*84 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*1 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*84*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*96 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*1 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*96*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*108 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*1 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*108*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*120 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*1 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*120*1
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*132 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*1 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*132*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*144 + aigryearunifiedlastyear*1 + picryearannunifiedlastyear*144*1





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**** ROBUSTNESS CHECK # 2 *****










*** TABLE SI-11:    ESTIMATE STATISTICAL MODELS THAT ACCOUNT FOR ASYMMETRIC ELECTORAL ACCOUNTABILITY & REPUTATION DEPRECIATION BASED ON EX-GOVERNORS' ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP BEING ABOVE [ABOVE RELEVANT MEDIAN AIG MEASURE] VERSUS BELOW AVERAGE [BELOW RELEVANT MEDIAN AIG MEASURE]  ******* 






**** CREATE RELEVANT VARIABLES TO ASSESS ASYMMETRIC ELECTORAL ACCOUNTABILITY & REPUTATION DEPRECIATION REPUTATION DEPRECIATON BASED ON EX-GOVERNORS' ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP BEING ABOVE [ABOVE RELEVANT MEDIAN AIG MEASURE] VERSUS BELOW AVERAGE [BELOW RELEVANT MEDIAN AIG MEASURE]: TENURE MODELS  ******* 



generate abovemedianaigtenure = 1 if personalincometenureann >=  2.162
replace abovemedianaigtenure = 0 if personalincometenureann <   2.162




** Two-Way Interaction Between Average Income Growth (Tenure) * Above Median Average Income Growth (Tenure) ****
generate aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure = personalincometenureann*abovemedianaigtenure
*
** Two-Way Interaction Between Election Delay * Above Median Average Income Growth (Tenure) ****
generate eddurmonths2abovemedianaigtenure = eddurmonths2*abovemedianaigtenure

** Three-Way Interaction Between Average Income Growth (Tenure) * Election Delay * Above Median Average Income Growth (Tenure) ****
generate pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure = pictenureann*abovemedianaigtenure






*** ESTIMATE OVERALL TENURE ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] **** 





******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-11A: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 abovemedianaigtenure pictenureann aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure eddurmonths2abovemedianaigtenure pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure  lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1

predict tenurefullresidsimrcook11a, cooksd
*
*
list electionresults eddurmonths2 general tenurefullresidsimrcook11a if tenurefullresidsimrcook11a >= 1  & eddur2binary==1



*** MODEL SI-11B: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 abovemedianaigtenure pictenureann aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure eddurmonths2abovemedianaigtenure pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure  lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj if eddur2binary==1 & tenurefullresidsimrcook11a < 1







******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-11C: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 abovemedianaigtenure pictenureann aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure eddurmonths2abovemedianaigtenure pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure  lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1



** POST-ESTIMATION DIAGNOSTICS OF THE RESIDUALS FOR SKEWNESS, KURTOSIS, AND INFLUENTIAL-LEVERAGE OBSERVATIONS *** 

predict tenurefullresidsimrcook11c, cooksd

*
*
*
*

list electionresults eddurmonths2 general tenurefullresidsimrcook11c if tenurefullresidsimrcook11c >= 1  & eddur2binary==1







*** MODEL SI-11D: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 abovemedianaigtenure pictenureann aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure eddurmonths2abovemedianaigtenure pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure  lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1 & tenurefullresidsimrcook11c < 1



*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [SETTING ABOVEMEDIANAIGTENURE = 0: EX-GOVERNOR'S TENURE REFLECTED BELOW MEDIAN AVERAGE PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] *****

lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*1 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*0 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure *1*0
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*12 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*0 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*12*0
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*24 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*0 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*24*0
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*36 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*0 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*36*0
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*48 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*0 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*48*0
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*60 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*0 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*60*0
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*72 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*0 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*72*0
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*84 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*0 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*84*0
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*96 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*0 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*96*0
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*108 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*0 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*108*0
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*120 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*0 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*120*0
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*132 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*0 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*132*0
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*144 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*0 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*144*0




*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [SETTING ABOVEMEDIANAIGTENURE = 1: EX-GOVERNOR'S TENURE REFLECTED ABOVE MEDIAN AVERAGE PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] *****

lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*1 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*1 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure *1*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*12 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*1 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*12*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*24 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*1 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*24*1
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*36 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*1 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*36*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*48 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*1 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*48*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*60 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*1 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*60*1
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*72 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*1 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*72*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*84 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*1 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*84*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*96 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*1 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*96*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*108 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*1 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*108*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*120 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*1 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*120*1
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*132 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*1 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*132*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*144 + aigtenureabovemedianaigtenure*1 + pictenureannabovemedianaigtenure*144*1




*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
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*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************




*** ESTIMATE MOST RECENT/LAST TERM ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] **** 






**** CREATE RELEVANT VARIABLES TO ASSESS ASYMMETRIC ELECTORAL ACCOUNTABILITY & REPUTATION DEPRECIATION REPUTATION DEPRECIATON BASED ON EX-GOVERNORS' ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP BEING ABOVE [ABOVE RELEVANT MEDIAN AIG MEASURE] VERSUS BELOW AVERAGE [BELOW RELEVANT MEDIAN AIG MEASURE]: LAST/RECENT TERM MODELS  ******* 


generate abovemedianaigrterm = 1 if personalincomerecenttermann >= 2.135
replace abovemedianaigrterm = 0 if personalincomerecenttermann <  2.135




** Two-Way Interaction Between Average Income Growth (Tenure) * Above Median Average Income Growth (Last/Recent Term) ****
generate aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm = personalincomerecenttermann*abovemedianaigrterm
*
** Two-Way Interaction Between Election Delay * Above Median Average Income Growth (Last/Recent Term) ****
generate eddurmonths2abovemedianaigrterm = eddurmonths2*abovemedianaigrterm

** Three-Way Interaction Between Average Income Growth (Tenure) * Election Delay * Above Median Average Income Growth (Last/Recent Term) ****
generate picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm = picrtermann*abovemedianaigrterm




******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********





*** MODEL SI-11E: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 abovemedianaigrterm picrtermann aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm eddurmonths2abovemedianaigrterm picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm  lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1


predict rtermfullresidsimrcook11e, cooksd
*
*
list electionresults eddurmonths2 general rtermfullresidsimrcook11e if rtermfullresidsimrcook11e >= 1 & eddur2binary==1




*** MODEL SI-11F: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 abovemedianaigrterm picrtermann aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm eddurmonths2abovemedianaigrterm picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm  lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & rtermfullresidsimrcook11e < 1 







******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********




*** MODEL SI-11F: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 abovemedianaigrterm picrtermann aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm eddurmonths2abovemedianaigrterm picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1



** POST-ESTIMATION DIAGNOSTICS OF THE RESIDUALS FOR SKEWNESS, KURTOSIS, AND INFLUENTIAL-LEVERAGE OBSERVATIONS *** 

predict rtermfullresidsimrcook11f, cooksd

*
*
*

list electionresults eddurmonths2 general rtermfullresidsimrcook11f if rtermfullresidsimrcook11f >= 1 & eddur2binary==1






*** MODEL SI-11G: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 abovemedianaigrterm picrtermann aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm eddurmonths2abovemedianaigrterm picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm  lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & rtermfullresidsimrcook11f < 1 



*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [SETTING ABOVEMEDIANAIGTENURE = 0: EX-GOVERNOR'S TENURE REFLECTED BELOW MEDIAN AVERAGE PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] ********
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*1 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*0 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*1*0
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*12 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*0 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*12*0
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*24 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*0 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*24*0
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*36 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*0 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*36*0
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*48 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*0 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*48*0
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*60 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*0 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*60*0
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*72 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*0 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*72*0
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*84 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*0 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*84*0
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*96 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*0 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*96*0
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*108 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*0 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*108*0
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*120 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*0 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*120*0
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*132 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*0 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*132*0
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*144 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*0 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*144*0






*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [SETTING ABOVEMEDIANAIGTENURE = 1: EX-GOVERNOR'S TENURE REFLECTED ABOVE MEDIAN AVERAGE PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] ********
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*1 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*1 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*1*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*12 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*1 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*12*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*24 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*1 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*24*1
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*36 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*1 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*36*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*48 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*1 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*48*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*60 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*1 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*60*1
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*72 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*1 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*72*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*84 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*1 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*84*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*96 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*1 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*96*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*108 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*1 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*108*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*120 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*1 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*120*1
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*132 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*1 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*132*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*144 + aigrtermabovemedianaigrterm*1 + picrtermannabovemedianaigrterm*144*1





*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
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*** ESTIMATE MOST RECENT YEAR ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] **** 






**** CREATE RELEVANT VARIABLES TO ASSESS ASYMMETRIC ELECTORAL ACCOUNTABILITY & REPUTATION DEPRECIATION REPUTATION DEPRECIATON BASED ON EX-GOVERNORS' ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP BEING ABOVE [ABOVE RELEVANT MEDIAN AIG MEASURE] VERSUS BELOW AVERAGE [BELOW RELEVANT MEDIAN AIG MEASURE]: LAST/RECENT YEAR MODELS  ******* 


generate abovemedianaigryear = 1 if personalincomerecentyearann >=  2.03

replace abovemedianaigryear = 0 if personalincomerecentyearann <   2.03




** Two-Way Interaction Between Average Income Growth (Tenure) * Above Median Average Income Growth (Last/Recent Year) ****
generate aigryearabovemedianaigryear = personalincomerecentyear*abovemedianaigryear
*
** Two-Way Interaction Between Election Delay * Above Median Average Income Growth (Last/Recent Year) ****
generate eddurmonths2abovemedianaigryear = eddurmonths2*abovemedianaigryear

** Three-Way Interaction Between Average Income Growth (Tenure) * Election Delay * Above Median Average Income Growth (Last/Recent Year) ****
generate picryearannabovemedianaigryear = picryearann*abovemedianaigryear






******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-11H: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 abovemedianaigryear picryearann aigryearabovemedianaigryear eddurmonths2abovemedianaigryear picryearannabovemedianaigryear  lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1


predict ryearfullresidsimrcook11h, cooksd
*
*
list electionresults eddurmonths2 general ryearfullresidsimrcook11h if ryearfullresidsimrcook11h >= 1 & eddur2binary==1




*** MODEL SI-11I: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 abovemedianaigryear picryearann aigryearabovemedianaigryear eddurmonths2abovemedianaigryear picryearannabovemedianaigryear  lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & ryearfullresidsimrcook11h < 1, norobust







******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********




*** MODEL SI-11J: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 abovemedianaigryear picryearann aigryearabovemedianaigryear eddurmonths2abovemedianaigryear picryearannabovemedianaigryear  lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1



** POST-ESTIMATION DIAGNOSTICS OF THE RESIDUALS FOR SKEWNESS, KURTOSIS, AND INFLUENTIAL-LEVERAGE OBSERVATIONS *** 

predict ryearfullresidsimrcook11j, cooksd

*
*
*
*

list electionresults eddurmonths2 general ryearfullresidsimrcook11j if ryearfullresidsimrcook11j >= 1 & eddur2binary==1






*** MODEL SI-11K: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 abovemedianaigryear picryearann aigryearabovemedianaigryear eddurmonths2abovemedianaigryear picryearannabovemedianaigryear  lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & ryearfullresidsimrcook11j < 1



*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [SETTING ABOVEMEDIANAIGTENURE = 0: EX-GOVERNOR'S TENURE REFLECTED BELOW MEDIAN AVERAGE PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] *********
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*1 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*0 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*1*0
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*12 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*0 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*12*0
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*24 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*0 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*24*0
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*36 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*0 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*36*0
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*48 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*0 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*48*0
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*60 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*0 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*60*0
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*72 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*0 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*72*0
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*84 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*0 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*84*0
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*96 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*0 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*96*0
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*108 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*0 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*108*0
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*120 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*0 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*120*0
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*132 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*0 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*132*0
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*144 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*0 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*144*0





*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [SETTING ABOVEMEDIANAIGTENURE = 1: EX-GOVERNOR'S TENURE REFLECTED ABOVE MEDIAN AVERAGE PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] *********
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*1 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*1 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*1*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*12 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*1 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*12*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*24 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*1 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*24*1
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*36 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*1 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*36*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*48 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*1 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*48*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*60 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*1 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*60*1
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*72 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*1 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*72*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*84 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*1 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*84*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*96 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*1 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*96*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*108 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*1 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*108*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*120 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*1 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*120*1
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*132 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*1 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*132*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*144 + aigryearabovemedianaigryear*1 +  picryearannabovemedianaigryear*144*1















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**** ROBUSTNESS CHECK # 3 *****





*** TABLE SI-12:    ESTIMATE STATISTICAL MODELS THAT ACCOUNT FOR MEASUREMENT ERROR BY ESTIMATING BOTH AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS & AIG'S INTERACTION WITH ELECTION DELAY WITH MEASUREMENT ERROR [I.E., RELIABILITY < 1.0]  ******* 





**** TENURE-BASED EVALUATION MODELS *****



******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-12A      UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***


eivreg electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1, r(personalincometenureann .9 pictenureann .9)




*** MODEL SI-12B    RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


eivreg electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & tenurefullresidsimrcook1a < 1,  r(personalincometenureann .9 pictenureann .9)






******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-12C      UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***


eivreg electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1, r(personalincometenureann .9 pictenureann .9)




*** MODEL SI-12D    RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


eivreg electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & tenurefullresidsimrcook1c < 1,  r(personalincometenureann .9 pictenureann .9)




*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***

lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*12
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*24
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*36
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*48
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*60
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*72
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*84
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*96
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*108
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*120
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*132
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*144






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*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************




**** LAST TERM-BASED EVALUATION MODELS *****





******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********


*** MODEL SI-12E      UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

eivreg electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1, r(personalincomerecenttermann 0.9  picrtermann 0.9)




*** MODEL SI-12F    RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***

eivreg electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & rtermfullresidsimrcook2a < 1, r(personalincomerecenttermann 0.9  picrtermann 0.9)






******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********




*** MODEL SI-12G      UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES ***

eivreg electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1, r(personalincomerecenttermann 0.9  picrtermann 0.9)




*** MODEL SI-12H    RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***

eivreg electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & rtermfullresidsimrcook2c < 1, r(personalincomerecenttermann 0.9  picrtermann 0.9)




*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***

lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*12
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*24
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*36
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*48
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*60
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*72
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*84
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*96
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*108
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*120
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*132
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*144





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*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************




**** MOST RECENT [FINAL] YEAR-BASED EVALUATION MODELS *****




******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-12I      UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

eivreg electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1, r(personalincomerecentyearann 0.85  picryearann 0.85)



*** MODEL SI-12J    RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


eivreg electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & ryearfullresidsimrcook3a < 1, r(personalincomerecentyearann 0.85  picryearann 0.85)






******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-12K      UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES ***

eivreg electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1, r(personalincomerecentyearann 0.85  picryearann 0.85)




*** MODEL SI-12L    RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***

eivreg electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1 & ryearfullresidsimrcook3c < 1, r(personalincomerecentyearann 0.85  picryearann 0.85)




*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*12
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*24
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*36
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*48
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*60
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*72
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*84
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*96
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*108
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*120
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*132
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*144





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**** ROBUSTNESS CHECK # 4 *****






***** TABLE SI-13:  AGGREGATE MODELS ESTIMATED USING OLS [CF. MODELS 1A-1D, 2A-2D, & 3A-3D] & CORRESPONDING POST-ESTIMATION MODEL DIAGNOSTICS [RESIDUAL SKEWNESS & KURTOSIS TESTS & RAMSEY RESET TEST FOR FUNCTIONAL FORM] *******






***** THESE MODELS ARE THE SAME APPEARING IN TABLE SI-3 -- EXCEPT STANDARD ERRORS ARE CLUSTER-ADJUSTED BY INDIVIDUAL EX-GOVERNOR *******






*** ESTIMATE OVERALL TENURE ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] **** 




******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-13A: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

regress electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1, vce(cluster govidentifier)




*** MODEL SI-13B: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***

regress electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj if eddur2binary==1 & tenurefullresidsimrcook1a < 1,vce(cluster govidentifier) 






******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-13C: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES ***


regress electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1, vce(cluster govidentifier)




*** MODEL SI-13D: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


regress electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1 & tenurefullresidsimrcook1c < 1, vce(cluster govidentifier)




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*** ESTIMATE MOST RECENT/LAST TERM ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] **** 








******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-13E: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

regress electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1, vce(cluster govidentifier)




*** MODEL SI-13F: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***

regress electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & rtermfullresidsimrcook2a < 1,  vce(cluster govidentifier)





******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********




*** MODEL SI-13G: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

regress electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1, vce(cluster govidentifier)




*** MODEL SI-13H: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


regress electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & rtermfullresidsimrcook2c < 1,vce(cluster govidentifier)  





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*** ESTIMATE MOST RECENT YEAR ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] **** 






******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-13I: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

regress electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1, vce(cluster govidentifier)



*** MODEL SI-13J: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


regress electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & ryearfullresidsimrcook3a < 1, vce(cluster govidentifier)




******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-13K: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

regress electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1, vce(cluster govidentifier)




*** MODEL SI-13L: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


regress electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & ryearfullresidsimrcook3c < 1, vce(cluster govidentifier)





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